mobolaji-aluko.jpg

Yar’Adua’s Churg-Strauss Syndrome (CSS) disease - a rare disease that features inflammation of blood vessels (also referred to as angiitis) in the lungs, skin, nerves, and abdomen - is not terminal, but our man in Abuja is a chronically ill man, and has been such since at least 1986, when according to his own admission, he has been constantly under German doctors’ watch.

Clearly, he cannot work till midnight or through the night as Obasanjo is famed to be able to do. In fact, rumor has it that by 6 pm to 8 pm, maybe earlier, he is quietly resting, no visitors allowed thank you but his voluble wife Turai and a few others.. What time he usually wakes up, I do not know, but maybe spokesperson Segun Adeniyi can inform us accordingly.

Moving on…

Not only do the consequences of that illness contrast sharply with the time effort put in by Obasanjo – and is nowhere comparable to the chain-smoking habits of Alhaji Shagari - but it leads to all kinds of daily speculations about what would/could happen to the geopolitical calculations surrounding the presidency if he suddenly passed away. It could have figured into the selection of the relatively tame and ineffectual Vice-President Goodluck Jonathan, and will certainly be responsible for the number of Northerners waiting in the wings in case something untoward suddenly happens to Yar’Adua.

Constitutionally, Goodluck Jonathan should take over from Yar’Adua in that eventuality. Politically, that may be a short-lived arrangement in which he (Jonathan) makes way for an arranged Northern successor - initially appointed by him as Vice-President and quickly approved by the National Assembly - and then quickly returns once more as Vice-President.

All these are of course Byzantine speculations – but there is an inherent instability in governance when every late wake-up by the President, a cough, a slip, a headache or (malaria) fever leads to a potential medical crisis as recently witnessed when Yar’Adua had to be flown abroad summarily, and more so when did not return when he was expected to.

His first year in office has had its own share of these medical furloughs and political imaginings and machinations.

The Way Forward

I have claimed above that the combination of ill-health, imposition, illegitimacy, and ill-preparedness have all impaired Yar’Adua’s performance in this his first year.

So where do we go from here ? If our lot under a particular leader has not improved since the past year - violating Reagan’s universal test for commendable leadership - and might have actually worsened in several areas, what prospect do we have for the future?

One can only continue to pray for Yar’Adua’s health and trust that he will continue to manage his chronic illness both in and out of the country – hopefully more in than out since most Nigerians need improved health care themselves and cannot travel abroad for malaria treatment. Next, with respect to imposition, what is done is done, but with Obasanjo still hovering over the PDP as he holds on to the Chairmanship of the Board of Trustees, the odor of that imposition will continue to follow Yar’Adua around. Finally, his illegitimacy might be ameliorated once and for all if his election were ultimately annulled by the Supreme Court, and then he ran again successfully on his own steam - or if he is left in place, then the excessively biased blind rulings of the Appeal Court were corrected and INEC given a serious red card. But more important than all the above, from here on, it is how he makes up for his lack of preparedness and how he impacts on his seven-point agenda and two special issues that he will be judged. Under no circumstances should this lack of preparedness be masked under the euphemism of deliberate and purposeful planning as presidential spokesperson Segun Adeniyi has done in his own recent one-year assessment of his boss’s record.

With respect to his seven-point agenda, first, Yar’Adua administration’s gas-based Energy/Electric Power policy must be linked to the Niger-Delta crisis; we await emergency declaration in both sectors. The present rumored total of 1000 MW power generation for a nation of 140 million people is atrocious and simply unacceptable. Secondly, despite the fact the world market per-barrel oil price is more than twice the $59 that our latest 2008 budget is based on– and there is yet no joy in the country – shows the folly of having a mono-cultural economy based on oil. Hence both a value-added manufacturing sector, coupled with a inward-looking agricultural policy – not one that is focused on importing billions of dollars of rice from abroad – are paramount, ones that provide both food security and employment.. Thirdly, a truly bold reformation and restructuring of the Nigerian Police Force based on decentralization and community policing – and moving away from the traditional fears of a state police - to improve local security to life, limb and property must be embarked upon without delay. Finally, mass employment will be further aided by embarking upon mass transportation infrastructure development – not just roads, but rail and waterways as well.

Epilogue
The purpose of any people-centered governance is to improve the health, wealth, education, security, general well-being and dignity of citizens. You can plan all you want, but if none of these areas is impacted both in the short run and long run, no amount of patience can be urged. That is Yar’Adua’s challenge – or of any body who might succeed him.

The long-suffering Nigerian people are waiting.

May 29, 2009 be a better day than May 29, 2008. (Amen.)

•Mobolaji E. Aluko, PhD, is a professor of Chemical Engineering at Howard University, in Washington DC, USA. He can be reached at alukome@gmail.com